If you are not a member of the MarketClub, watch this free video and find out where we are placing our stops.

Be sure to watch the market action for APPLE on Monday. It should quite a show.

Have a great weekend,

From: MarketClub Headquarters

Subject: Apple’s new iPhone

Dear reader,

There’s an old adage on Wall Street that goes something like this, to make money in the market you  "buy the rumor and sell on the news".

What this adage reminds me of is the upcoming launch of Apple’s iPhone.

Let me be right up front with you. I am a huge fan of Apple (not just a computer company anymore). I have been using Apple computers since 1982. Hey, that’s 25 years I have been buying Apples and tapping away at their keyboards.

How time flies.

OK, enough with the sentimental stuff… so here we are just days and hours away from what everyone at Apple would like us to believe is the product launch of the century.

The iPhone

Is Apple going to sell 10 million iPhones in 12 months? 

Is all the hype already built into the stock price?

If Apple fails to sell 10 million iPhones, is that a huge failure in the eyes of the market?

But hey, let’s be fair, the phone is cool, way cool. So what if the cost is $499 or $599 … Apple has reached icon status like few other companies in the world  It’s not the money, it’s the status and the cool factor of owning an iPhone that matters most to users,  Forget the fact that they just paid an arm and a leg for a communication and entertainment device.

But, there’s more, or a Steve Jobs would say … "Oh, And There’s Just One More Thing".

Well Steve Jobs is more than a comeback kid. Here’s a guy who in his early 50’s (he was born on the 24th of February 1955) who has to be the coolest guy on the planet, after all it was Steve who saved Apple from extinction

But nothing goes up forever, and that’s what got me thinking about that old Wall Street adage "Buy the rumor sell on the News".

Now, I am not saying that you do just that, buy the rumor and sell on the news.  What I am saying is that come this weekend, the iPhone goes on sale at 6.p.m. Friday across the country.  The speculation on Monday is going to go something like the first weekend of a major new movie release. You know, you’ve probably heard it every weekend … box office receipts were x millions of dollars, but analysts expected a bigger opening and were disappointed with ticket sales. Or it could go something like this, record opening for iPhone, Apple scores a slam dunk with long lines of iphoneiacs (this is a name I coined for people who have gotta be the first to have an iPhone) waiting outside all AT&T stores nationwide.

We will see.

The Chinese have a saying/curse, "… may you live in interesting times." Well, if your Apple or AT&T I guess these are very interesting times.

The key to Apples fortune with the iPhone is to watch the market action on Monday and Tuesday. This action will tell the true story of were the iPhone is going to lead Apples stock price.

Come Monday, professional traders are going to judge how much of the iPhone hype is already built into the market and what is the upside potential for this stock. It’s all based on perception.

Big weekend, but not big enough. Small weekend but lot’s of interest in buying the phone later. It’s all perception.

But, as Steve Jobs would say, "Oh, And There’s Just One More Thing". That one more thing is MarketClub’s "Trade Triangle" approach. The chart clearly shows on September 5, 2006, MarketClub dynamically flashed a buy signal at $70 a share.

One last thought.

I can’t help thinking that Bill Gates is out there somewhere thinking to himself "I should have killed Apple years ago." and "Why can’t I be cool like Steve".

Old rivalries never end, they just get more interesting.

That’s all for today.

Don’t forget to tune into the Apple stock show this coming Monday on the NASDAQ, it ought to be interesting.

Every success trading Apple.

You know what I mean, you buy at 10 and sell at 15 and make 50% on your money. I can understand that, and so can most investors.

I have to admit that some of these off book derivatives that banks and hedge funds are creating and trading are just not that simple to understand.

When the time comes, and it will, you will see, the you know what, hit the fan. Some of these hedge fund managers will see that a lot of stuff that looked good in computer simulations may not look or work as well in the real world (see the sub prime melt down).

Just look at what happened to this hedge fund, Amarath Advisors who lost 6 BILLION and how they thought they where smarter that the markets.

And now the Blackstone Group has gone public with great fanfare. Now that’s going to be an interesting one to watch. I am going to be watching this one closely, if it drops below its initial  public offering at price of $31.00 it could spell problems for the whole market.  If this stock trades below 30 you are going to see a lot of press and finger pointing and speculating that we are seeing a top in the markets.

The only way to consistently be successful in the market is to learn how the market works, have a game plan and have two other key elements necessary for success.

Here they are:

* Discipline

* Diversification

Once you understand how the markets work, have a game plan, and master discipline and diversification, you are on your way to success.

Every success in the future,

But what I am thinking about this particular Sunday morning is the market action last week. The negative action has to have been disappointing to the bulls.

Let’s examine some of the facts of what traders are looking at and what has them worried.

Interest rates: Last week the 10 year Note inched higher yet again and interest rates closed higher for the week. The upward trend in interest rates remains positive, this is not a good sign for the stock market.

Crude Oil: Forget the Middle East that’s a disaster already. If that was not enough you have Nigeria which is not exactly going along with anyones game plan. Bottom line, oil closed higher on the week. I would not be surprised to see oil trading over seventy dollars a barrel on Monday or Tuesday of the new trading week. This is not a good sign for the stock market. Higher fuel costs, translate into higher food cost, which translates into higher inflation, which means higher interest rates. These are not good signs for the stock market.

OK, let’s sum this all up by looking at the market itself. As I have said before, listen to the market as it tells you what it wants to do. Last week the Blackstone Group went public. This to me was a pretty bearish sign. Here you have some of the smartest guys on the planet selling their assets to the public. Think about it for a second, would you if you are making all this money in all these private deals cut the public in for a share of the pie???

My guess is, if the principals of Blackstone are still around in a few years they will take Blackstone private again with a stock buy back.

Just a thought.

Back to the market. Three weeks ago MarketClub flashed a "Trade Triangle" exit signal on the Dow. The same exit signal held true for the S&P. The lone exception was NASDAQ which managed to inch to new highs last week.

For the record, the major trend for all the indexes remains positive according to the MarketClub formula.

The bulls argue that there’s lot’s of liquidity and that stocks are cheap relative to whatever metric du jour they are using to measure stock values.

I say watch the market and not the words of the talking media heads. Always remember market action trumps market talk every time.

Here’s what I expect will happen. Look for and expect more volatility in the markets. The easy money has been made. Look for money to become more expensive to borrow as rates climb higher. The wild card has to be oil. Under seventy dollars is under the radar for most market mavens and media pundits. Over seventy dollars and it’s a whole new ball game.

So there we have it, the Ying and Yang of the market. Are we seeing a top in the global stock markets or is this the pause that refreshes.

For me, I am going to watch the market action and MarketClub’s "Trade Triangles" as I know they offer the most subjective view of what the future holds.

Anyway, that just some of the things I am thinking about this Sunday morning. Have a great week in the market and remember there is usually a bull market somewhere in the investment world and MarketClub can help you find it.

Cheers,

Did you know you that you can now trade a stock that tracks crude oil almost perfectly?

In my new video, I reveal the name of this stock, and show you how to filter your trades based on signals in crude oil and this mystery stock.

I just put my new video online, it’s timely, so check it out today.

No registration or fee required.

Here’s the video.

Enjoy,

Adam Hewison
President INO.com

If you ask a room full of commodity traders which skill is the most important in becoming a successful trader I wonder if anyone would respond the ability to take a loss? I doubt it, because taking a loss is considered a negative. Who wants to talk about the right way to lose money? I think every trader should!

I believe that possessing the mental toughness to accept a loss, and the ability to know when a loss should be taken, are traits I believe to be at the foundation of being a profitable commodity trader. Let us understand each other right now. If you trade commodities some of your trades, if not a majority, will be losers. If you are to be a profitable trader, I believe you must recognize this basic fact and have a bad trade exit strategy determined even before you put on any trade.

Learn more about stops.

I believe that the more you know about the markets, the better off you are in the long run. With this in mind we are going to post on a regular basis, words and terms that will help you expand your own       personal knowledge of the markets and the marketplace.

                                Here’s part 4.

                                A better informed trader … is a smarter trader.