THOUGHTS AND TRADING IDEAS FOR THE WEEKEND
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THOUGHTS AND TRADING IDEAS FOR THE WEEKEND
Did Crude Oil top out? YES —
Did the market put in bottom? YES —
Has Gold topped out? YES —
What a difference a week makes, Crude Oil slides below $90 a
barrel, Gold blinks and trades below $800, and stocks rocket
up for there best one week performance of the year.
So is a recession looming or are happy days here again?
What we witnessed this past week was a massive short
covering rally in the equity markets. We have discussed this
before, bears make the best bulls, and that’s exactly what
happend in the equity markets this past week. We witnessed a
massive unwinding of the oil/equity spread. Traders bolted
for the same door as they covered short financial equities
and liquidate long positions in crude oil.
On top of all that, help,came into the equity markets in the
form of Fed governor Donald Kohn and later in the week from
Ben Bernanke. Each of them let it be known that they were
not against lowering interest rates. With so much good news
the market only had one way to go UP, UP, and maybe away.
But can it last? That’s the question on most traders minds
this first weekend of December 2007. Is the subprime (old
story ) still hanging around ready to throw the world into
a recession. Is the soft housing market going to crimp
consumer spending this holiday season? Is oil going to
shoot over $100?
It’s all part of the ebb and flow of the marketplace.
DOW has resistance at 13,500.
NASDAQ has resistance at 2,700 and again at 2,740.
GOLD SPOT has resistance at 830 and support at 772.
CRUDE OIL (Jan) resistance at 96.00 support at 84.00
Speaking of the marketplace …
———————-
BROTHER CAN YOU SPARE 90 SECONDS …
Is it possible to learn how to trade forex in just 90 seconds???
The answer is a resounding yes.
Now you can stack the deck in your favor and trade like a
pro. All you need to do is watch our NEW 90 second FOREX
video.
No registration required
Find out how you can become a
winner in the FOREX markets in just 90 seconds. Click, load,
learn from 90 Second FOREX
———————-
SOMETHING TO REMEMBER
“It’s better to be wrong than wrong and stupid.”
How to manage losses.
———————-
WHICH WAY FOR THE MARKETS NOW?
Use this really cool analysis tool and get instant answers
in plain English on any market.
There is no cost.
———————-
THE VOTES ARE COMING IN ON THE ECONOMY
Here’s the question we posted on our Traders Blog blog. “Are
you comfortable about the economy?” The results may surprise
you. Vote, then check out the results.
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TIME TO LAUGH
Two traders riding in an elevator at the Chicago Board of
Trade. One trader turns to the other and says “What’ya do
this weekend?” The other trader answers “I got a dog for my
wife”. The first trader without missing a beat says, “Nice
trade”.
This joke courtesy of Chuck Le Beau of Arizona. Heard any
good trading or market jokes lately?
Send it to support@ino.com
———————-
LEARN HOW TO TRADE A DOWNWARD TRENDING MARKET
In this video lesson, Brad Stafford gives traders three
compelling pieces of information about how to trade a
downward trending market. Watch this streaming video lesson
to learn about shorting stocks.
———————-
INO QUOTED IN THE NEWS THIS PAST WEEK
• SINGAPORE BUSINESS TIMES
‘You’ve got some of the top Wall Street minds, from George
Soros to Warren Buffett and Julian Robertson, saying we’re
heading into a recession, and the price of oil is clearly a
big reason why,’ said J Adam Hewison, president of INO.com,
a financial research firm that offers technical analyses of
equities, futures, options and foreign exchange markets.
Just as worrying, the prospects for oil retreating to lower
levels in the next several months appears low, many Wall
Street analysts said. ‘I put a lot of the blame for what I
see as a sustained rise in oil prices at these levels on the
Fed (the US central bank) and its chairman, Ben Bernanke,’
said Mr. Hewison.
FORBES
From The Chart Room - Google’s Muddy Retreat
Adam Hewison, INO.com 11.27.07, 3:00 PM ET
Web site.
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LEARN & EARN
Brad Stafford, posted another lesson “Point-and -Figure Charts”
———————-
MONDAY EXCHANGE
Lindsay posts the question ” Do You Know What Direction Your
Stocks Are Going?
———————-
FOUR FREE ONLINE TRADING VIDEOS YOU CAN BENEFIT FROM TODAY
Here’s a small sample of what is coming up on INO TV
———————-
CHECK ON THE WORLD MARKETS 24 HOURS A DAY
Don’t miss any of the global overnight action.
———————-
PICK A MARKET, ANY MARKET
Use this really cool analysis tool and get instant answers
in plain English on any market. There is no cost.
———————-
This is Adam Hewison,
have a great weekend and a profitable new trading week.
Is this Hedge Fund manager the next Warren Buffett?
Edward S. Lampert has made no secret of wanting to follow in the footsteps of his hero, Warren E. Buffett. Like the Sage of Omaha, Lampert formed a partnership at age 25 and invested in old-line companies that throw off lots of cash. And just as Buffett did with Berkshire Hathaway Inc., Lampert gained control of bankrupt discounter Kmart Corp. last year, hinting he would turn it into a powerful investment vehicle. Then, on Nov. 17, Lampert swooped in and launched an $11 billion purchase of Sears, Roebuck & Co. (SHLD).Has Fast Eddie lost his golden touch?
We don’t think so but in the short term Mr. Lampert has two major problems on his hands Sears Holdings Corp (SHLD) and Citi (C) It may be a while before he shines with these two iconic giants. Now Mr. Lambert is a very patient investor and both Sears and Citi are great franchises that normally churn out cash like a printing machine. So it was a shock when Sears Holdings Corp reported sharply lower third-quarter profits on Thursday, plummeting its shares down more than 14 percent to new lows.
It’s good enough for these well know guys.
For moguls like Michael Dell and David Geffen, Edward S. (Eddie) Lampert is the go-to money manager. The brightest minds on Wall Street piggyback his trades. Just 43, he’s a self-made billionaire who mixes bets on down-and-out investments with unnatural patience. No one has more faith in Eddie than Eddie. Which may explain why he’s so comfortable leading Wall Street in the new world of high finance, one in which hedge funds like his and giant buyout firms are going toe-to-toe in the arena known as private equity. Lampert is part of the new breed of hedgies who have gone from passive investing to actively buying and managing firms to seek outsize returns.
Read the full story here
Eddie Lampert has a great long-term track record, but can he run big companies?
We are going to wait until both Sears and CITI reverse their current down trends and are in clear uptrends before we go long.
We have never been strong fans of catching falling knives or trying to pick bottom bottoms in a market.
Adam Hewison
What can Instant Trend Analysis do for you?
Look how it helped Milt Fall of Virgina:
“When I started using the MarketClub, I checked out your signals versus the signals I generate for a few weeks. I used mine to verify yours… now I use yours to verify mine and the profits have been astounding!”
Milt Fall, Virginia
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There are going to be some amazing opportunities to make money in 2008. Start preparing now with MarketClub.
Five trading videos to prepare you for 2008
Watching these five trading lessons will help prepare you to take advantage of some of the great investment opportunities we see in 2008.
Enjoy,
MarketClub spots “Winning Trades”
MarketClub spots “Earnings Surprises”
2007 Q3 Results
Bear Swing Trading
Adam’s 10 Golden Trading Rules
Stocks up, Crude down … what’s going on here???
Stocks up, Crude down … what’s going on here???
What we witnessed today was a massive short covering rally in the equity markets. You’ve heard us say this before, bears make the best bulls, and that’s exactly what happend in the equity markets today.
The scramble to cover short positions in financial equities signaled an unwinding of the oil/equity spread.
Traders covered short equities and in turn liquidate long positions in crude exiting what had been a dream trade.
It is very seldom you see the market participants so heavily stacked one way for so long. Long crude - short financials. What’s causing all this volatility? I am going to point to the SEC’s removal of the “Up Tick Rule”. To get a better understanding of the importance of this rule watch this short video.
However, one day does not make a market, or a trend.
Also fueling the equity fire, was Donald Kohn of the Fed, hinting that the FED may cut interest rates again. Do you remember what happened last time the Fed cut rates? The market rallied for a couple of days and then promptly tanked.
The message here is be careful what you wish for.
Here’s how I see it.
Equity Indexes = wide trading range
DOW: resistance 14,000 support 12,750
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Crude Oil = wide trading range
Crude resistance 99.00 support 90.00
Thursday and Friday should make for interesting trading. Look for continued volatility and markets that are skittish at best.
As always remain diversified and disciplined.
Adam Hewison
Here’s your sixth lesson
Good Wednesday Morning everyone!
I pray everyone had an enjoyable Thanksgiving…
and BLACK FRIDAY! Do you agree with the term
“Cyber Monday”? I heard a figure like 65% of the
workforce will be losing productivity this past Monday.
I for one was NOT one of them!
Here’s your sixth lesson in “The Secrets Of
Professional Floor Traders” mini email course.
Lesson 6 - “Point-and-Figure Charts”
presented by Adam Hewison
================================================================
This particular technique has been around for over one
hundred years. So you might say it has stood the test
of time. I first saw it used on the floor of The Chicago
Mercantile Exchange by some very successful traders.
Since then I have seen very few other traders using it
despite the fact that it is amazingly accurate.
This is a true gem of a lesson and not to be missed.
Because this lesson contains charts, it has been posted
here.
All my best,
Brad Stafford
P.S. Look out for the next lesson - “The RSI Indicator”
This is a powerful indicator that is heavily watched
by the pros.
Google’s Muddy Retreat
From The Chart Room
Google’s Muddy Retreat
Adam Hewison, INO.com 11.27.07, 3:00 PM ET
Google, the darling of the tech stocks, endured a nasty price fall earlier this month. And despite a week of apparent recovery, traders remain bearish about its near-term prognosis. Expectations are for the stock to stay in a wide trading range instead of resuming its bull run to new highs.
On Nov. 8, Google had its sharpest one-day point move for the year, dropping more than $37–a 5% loss for the day. In addition to ending what had been an amazing bull run for Google, the move triggered a key indicator, the Daily Moving Average Convergence Divergence line (MACD), to turn negative the next day for the first time since Aug. 23.
While several other indicators continue to predict a strong uptrend for Google, traders often pay close attention to the MACD to identify the beginning of trend reversals for stocks that have been in a long bull or bear run. The reversal of this indicator, coupled with the current Fibonacci retracements–also relevant to Google, as they are generally used to understand stocks that achieve new highs followed closely by a steep fall–signify that we likely won’t see Google rebounding anytime soon.
As you can see in the chart above, the Daily MACD reversal on Nov. 9 was the first indication that the stock was in trouble.
This lagging indicator uses moving averages to alert traders to both the momentum and direction of a trend. For stocks in a strong trend, the indicator can be understood by a crossover system: When one line crosses the other, it signifies a change in trend.
Until the red line re-crosses the green line, we can expect to see relatively flat movement in the price of the stock, confirming that Google posted a top at $747.24 on Nov. 7.
The end of Google’s impressive run and the development of a new top are confirmed by the Fibonacci retracement numbers, which show a resistance level for the stock at $697.55.
The horizontal lines that make up the Fibonacci retracements signal support and resistance levels. They are calculated based on percentages of motion between the most recent high and low–the three most commonly used being 62% (or specifically 61.8%), 50% and 38% (or specifically 38.2%).
When a stock reaches a new high and then falls to a support level, it typically retraces some portion of its upward trajectory until it faces resistance at one of the Fibonacci retracements.
In the case of Google, with a high established at $747.24 and a low put in place at $616.02, the following retracements are derived: 38% equals $665.32, 50% equals $681.93 and finally, 62% equals $697.55.
Yesterday’s price reversal near the upper Fibonacci retracement level illustrates the resistances Google will face before it continues its climb to the top, set at $747.24.
In the short term, look for traders to proceed with caution when it comes to Google. We expect that Google will have to do a great deal more backing and filling south of the upper band (62%) of the Fibonacci levels. We would avoid trying to pick a bottom and would only consider going long Google when the Moving Average Convergence Divergence turns positive.
Adam Hewison is president of INO.com. More of Hewison’s charts and analysis are available at MarketClub and Ino.com.
Forbes is a registered trademark of Forbes
Forget the pain at the pump …
Forget the pain at the pump …
Here’s how I see it this Tuesday morning.
The pain in the market should not be hurting you if you have been reading this blog and using our “Trade Triangle” technology.
As a matter of fact if you have been following our approach to trading with our “Trade Triangles” you should have had an excellent year like Milt in Virginia.
“When I started using the MarketClub, I checked out your signals versus the signals I generate for a few weeks. I used mine to verify yours… now I use yours to verify mine and the profits have been astounding!”Milt Fall, Virginia
Thanks Milt. I am glad that our “Trade Triangle” technology is working well for you.
P.S. If you are not yet using our “Trade Triangles” you can check them out here risk free.
We have thousands of investors like Milt, who use MarketClub successfully everyday to make important investment decisions. Are you one of them? If not, find out how MarketClub can help you safely navigate the iceberg laden investment waters.
Now it’s time to zip back in blog time and revisit perhaps the most important SEC rule change in my entire investment lifetime. It’s called the “UP TICK RULE” watch the video here and see why the SEC abolished it to the detriment on every stock investor.
I believe that this rule change along with the growth of hedge funds have all contributed to the markets downturn. There are of course other contributing factors for the economy which have all added to declining stock prices, like record high oil prices, the sub-prime disaster and all the CDO and SIVs that are imploding.
Is the economy going to get better anytime soon? Not in my opinion. See what I predicted on Bloomberg TV on September 13th when I indicated that spiraling raw material prices and a falling dollar would present a bleak picture for the U.S. economy and stocks.
Now more than ever … be prepared and be disciplined in your trading.
Adam Hewison
Do You Know What Direction Your Stocks Are Going?
I don’t know about you, but I get lost in the car all the time. I have a bad sense of direction. If I’m supposed to turn left, I accidentally turn right. When I go into the city, I always end up on the expressway back out of town. I am the person pulled over on the side of the road with a big map spread across my dashboard.
I have come to the realization that I need an automobile GPS. I need the annoying voice to tell me to “Turn Left In 0.3 Miles.” I need a big arrow pointing to my destination at all times. I need someone to tell me that I have arrived at my destination.
It’s funny that I need the same help with driving that I do with trading. I need someone, something to say… “Weekly Positive Trend on 9/28 at $23.97.” I need to see a big arrow pointing which way to go. I need something to tell me that we have arrived at the trend destination, or we need to get back on for a another move.
MarketClub’s trade triangles help me have a better sense of direction in the markets. It’s not that I need someone to tell me what to do, it’s a confirmation of my own intuition. It’s how I can keep my emotions out of my trading by making simple rules for myself and following them!
Let’s look at Garmin (NASDAQ: GRMN). Since 1989 Garmin has been developing automotive, aviation, marine and outdoor recreation navigation and communication devices. With the latest craze in automobile GPS units, internationally distributed Garmin products are flying off the shelves.
Garmin’s stock has increased more than 400% in little over a year. Maxing out at $126/share, Garmin has made MarketClub members quite a profit since September of 2006. Of course it’s easy to look back a chart and say, “Wow… look what you would have done,” but if we set realistic rules… we can get the big picture of the big profits.
- Use MarketClub suggested method for equities (TRADE WITH TREND)
*monthly trend
*weekly timing
-Use the low from the previous three periods (weekly level) as a stop placement
-If stopped out / out-triangle issued use next in-triangle to get back into market
In 09/28 @ 23.97 - Out 11/01 @ 23.81 -$0.16
In 11/30 @ 25.29 - Out 01/09 @ 52.03 $26.74
In 02/08 @ 52.60 - Out 03/07 @ 51.13 -$1.47
In 04/20 @ 55.60 - Out 07/26 @ 73.58 $17.98
In 07/31 @ 87.00 - Out 10/01 @ 103.16 $16.16
In 10/23 @ 116.9 - Out 11/02 @ 103.13 -$13.077
Losses: 3
Stopped out at the price of every red triangle
Profit - $46.17 / share : Approximately 100% return of initial investment
Let the trade triangles tell you the direction of the market
Trading Thoughts and Ideas for the Weeekend
This has been a week of giving thanks. First, we want to thank you for allowing us to email you with our thoughts and ideas on the markets. Secondly, we want to thank you for using our #1 website INO.com Thirdly, we wish to thank all the members of our sister site MarketClub.com for subscribing to our service.
We also want to thank the markets for just being there and allowing us the opportunity to trade them in a free society. Wow, we are lucky to live in such interesting times.
Lastly, our thanks go to real values and treasures in our lives and that is our family and our friends.
O.K., with Thanksgiving day behind us for ‘07, are the equity markets and the dollar going to remain turkeys in “08? That is the question on most traders minds this weekend.
This past week the market action in equities and the dollar painted a disappointing and rather a bleak picture for the markets.
We expect today’s market action on expected reduced volume, could produce some large and volatile price swings. Most traders I know left their offices and posts early Wednesday for a long weekend.
It’s all part of the ebb and flow of the marketplace. Speaking of the marketplace …
Did you know you can …
———————-
LEARN HOW TO TRADE FOREX IN 90 SECONDS.
Is it possible to learn how to trade forex in just 90 seconds???
The answer is yes, and yes again.
Now you can stack the deck in your favor and trade like a pro. All you need to do is watch our NEW 90 second FOREX video.
No registration required … Find out how you can become a winner in the FOREX markets in just 90 seconds.
Click, load, learn from 90 Second FOREX
———————-
FREDDIE MAC IMPLODES
This past week the Freddie Mac team addressed what was a packed conference call to report their earnings for Q3 and project where Freddie Mac will end up … AND WE WERE THERE!!
Watch how we traded this disaster.
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CHAIRMAN BERNANKE LET’S GO SHOPPING
Open invitation to the FED Chairman Bernanke and to all Fed governors to go shopping
Dear Chairman Bernanke,
Let’s go shopping.
I invite you and your entire committee to come shopping with me for groceries in any local supermarket you like. Oh, before we do that let’s stop at a filling station and buy some gas.
You know what gas is, right? Well that’s the stuff the goes in your car’s gas tank, that’s what gets most Americans to work.
I am not sure if you, or any of your committee have at anytime in the past
year purchased a gallon of milk, a gallon of gas, or any groceries to put on the table. But, if you haven’t, then its time we went shopping together.
You see Mr. Bernanke, I along with three hundred million other hard working Americans are having a hard time understanding why you keep saying that inflation is under control.
We just don’t understand where you get your numbers from? You see we are the regular folks who get paychecks, shop at the local stores and supermarkets and fill up our tanks at the local filling station.
We just don’t understand where you go to get your groceries or buy your gas. That is why I want to invite you and your entire committee to come shopping.
I know you are busy, so if my invitation doesn’t work for you, perhaps you could let me in on the secret store and filling station where you and the Fed governors shop and buy gas.
Thanks.
I look forward to hearing from you.
Sincerely,
———————-
LEARN HOW TO TRADE A DOWNWARD TRENDING MARKET
In this video lesson, Brad Stafford gives traders three compelling pieces of information about how to trade a downward trending market. Watch this streaming video to learn about shorting stocks.
———————-
SOMETHING TO REMEMBER
“The past is the teacher of the future”
Old Hungarian Proverb
———————-
WHICH WAY FOR THE MARKETS NOW?
Use this really cool analysis tool and get instant answers in plain English on any market. There is no cost. Give it a try.
———————-
THE VOTES ARE COMING IN ON THE ECONOMY
Here’s the question we posted on our Traders Blog blog. “Are you comfortable about the economy?” The results may surprise you.
Vote, then check out the results. No registration required.
———————-
INO IN THE NEWS THIS PAST WEEK
on CNBC
See what Adam has to say about Hugo Chavez,
OPEC and the Crude Oil live on CNB
http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=596552505&play=1
• MARKETWATCH
“There will be no Thanksgiving reprieve for the U.S. dollar. Sentiment remains decidedly negative as traders now have their sight set on the big number of $1.5000,” said Adam Hewison, president of INO.com, a technical analysis Web site.
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/dollar-under-pressure-ahead-fed/story.aspx?guid=%7B3605CE46-035A-414D-8052-0D66DC7CE7AD%7D
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WHAT ARE YOU THANKFUL FOR?
Great uplifting video if your spirits are down.
———————-
LEARN & EARN
Brad Stafford, posted another video lesson - “Freddie Mac NYSE:FRE - MarketClub Video Lesson”
———————
DID A 300 YEAR OLD DISCOVERY TORPEDO GOOGLE
Find out what’s going on in Google right now.
———————-
FOUR FREE ONLINE TRADING VIDEOS YOU CAN BENEFIT FROM TODAY
Here’s a small sample of what is coming up on INO TV
———————-
CHECK ON THE WORLD MARKETS 24 HOURS A DAY
Don’t miss any of the global overnight action.
———————-
PICK A MARKET, ANY MARKET
Use this really cool analysis tool and get instant answers in plain English on any market. There is no cost. Give it a try.
———————-
This is Adam Hewison,
have a great weekend and a profitable new trading week.
———————-
