There’s no quick and easy fix for the mess we are in.

Dear Adam,
Your perception and insight has provided investors with a clearer picture of the present & future. I also find INO.COM as a refreshing reputable and creditable site as an investor. Too many investors are swayed by misinformation by Research firms, their experts, and their high target prices for years. And that includes the tainted views of star mine experts too. Lastly, Thomson financial never adjusts their mean targets as well, if a stock has gone down -96% in a given year. You are the sole precise Investor tool that provides every investor with total accuracy as far as I am concerned. GOOD JOB! MUCH APPRECIATED!
JIMMY T

It is not only the NASDAQ or DOW that are likely to be affected, but the equity markets across the globe, including the emerging markets too.

In particular the BRIC countries (Brazil, Russia, India, China) have enjoyed amazing growth rates in recent years, both in terms of real economy GDP but also in the performance of their domestic stock markets.

In these markets much of the growth in stock valuations has been in commodity producers, such as oil and gas companies,and iron ore, aluminium and copper mining companies.

Until such time as there is a noticeable and sustained increase in energy and metals consumption, these markets are likely to remain subdued.

Just consider that Russia needs crude oil prices to be well over $60 for it to be making a net contribution to its economy. So while crude prices are down below $40, from their July 2008 high of $147, the Russian economy will be in very bad shape. Add to that the milder winter and lower demand than usual for natural gas, one of the country’s major commodity earners, and it does not look good.

China has the $586 billion stimulus package which should mitigate some of the worst aspects of the slowdown, so long as the investment can feed into the earmarked infrastructure projects swiftly and the money gets circulated in the economy, and saves and creates jobs.

This graph from Adam helps by putting the current market difficulties into the long term perspective, and so perhaps we need to be braced for volatile times and take advantage of relatively short moves in the market.

There could be upward pressure again on the crude oil price if much needed new refining capacity investment is not forthcoming, as well as if there is a lengthy period of tension in the Middle East.

Adam - For those willing to spend time reading economic history and thinking, we are approaching one of the greatest opportunities of a lifetime. Probably a few more years but then you can buy straw hats regardless of the weather.
Enjoy your site and comments.
Happy New Years, John

Adam:
Just wanted to let you know that I do apprecate your comments and use you input as part of my decision making when entering the markets.
Thanks for all you do “happy new year”
Bob W

Adam,

I agree with your observations and commentary, but
I’m curious as to what specific reasons you have
for considering the NASDAQ a more significant leading indicator of future market direction than
the other indices such as the DOW?

Erick Tippett
Chicago, Illinois

You also forget one item. In 2010 the 6 UAE members are planning to start issuing their own currency. So what happens when Oil is no longer traded in US dollars? Their is, of course, Canada with it’s huge oil sands.

I also forgot to indicate, look at the previous to 1930’s bust(1873?).If you follow the bear markets, one bear market goes down 1.5%(-1.5)from top. The following bear market goes down 80 to 90% from top. It’s cyclical. We are now in a 80 to 90% drop bear market. The one following this one starting in 2038 will be a -1.5% correction. I know it sounds a little wierd but theses are just normal cycles. Right now i am stowing away cash, big time.

Adam–
First of all thank you greatly for your site, information, and dilligence. I find the information to be on point and unbiased. The historical information you supply really helps bring the long term and very long term trends to light, and I would say that decade long (or longer)trends must be taken into consideration when planning for long term investments and more importantly long term SAVINGS.
I of course understand that this is a site primarily dedicated to trades of the short term, but being that I need somewhere very stable with minimal risk and strong growth to place my savings I have chosen to save in pre-1933 Private Gold and Silver. This Market has not only been stable over the past 15 years or so, but has consistently generated profits that bonds or CD’s can’t touch.

NMelendez brings up a great point with the GCC / UAE currency making its debut here shortly. I beleive this can be a gamechanger — can the Dollar maintain it’s status as the world reserve currency? Well, not forever, we all know that. Something will take it down, and that will be catastrophic for people holding only paper dollars and contracts denominated in Dollars. But looking at a 10 year or 20 year chart for the Dollar,( they aren’t easy to find )it becomes very apparent that long term savings in the Dollar makes little to no sense. This is before we factor in the upcoming inflation being brought to us by our friends in Washington and on Wall Street. The last thing I would be doing at this point is hoarding cash….

Any comments are invited.

Adam,

……if this is a 100 year fractal then we have a bit of a spike up in the near future and then an escalator down event to look forward to….could you not load this chart in and see what your (medved) triangles make of this synthesis