Trader’s Blog Contest for January

It is my opinion that the ‘recovery’ is only a
retrace in a Crashing Market - If I should pick
a target price I would say 6703 is as good as I
can choose. I seriously hope for all our sakes
I am dead wrong and being overly pessimistic.

The Dow will close at 9985 at end of first quarter

Mostly flat, but the BEARS will be in control!

I think the Dow will about same place that it is now 8400

2009 year end Dow 9510

DOW is @ 10,650 end of 1st Quarter

Where will the Dow close at the end of the first quarter of 2009… I say it will close at 9,678.

Dow will be @ 10222 by the end of the 1st Q of 2009.

The Bulls will be running. Throwing caution to the wind, January will end around 9400.

I think the DOW will close at 8.999 on March 31, 2009 at 4:00 pm (EST). The Bears will be in charge, but control by the Bulls.

Bullist

With any luck, where it is today.

it’s Bearish. it might be somewhere around 8400 .

I predict the bears and bulls will be fighting it out the next 3-6 months, then the bulls will predominate. Thet’s what my crystal ball says.
Market is trending higher since Nov. 20-21 but that may have been a false bottom.

the Dow will close at 9680

I predict the DOW will be 9111 at the end of 1st quarter.

I think the first quarter will see an Obama honeymoon as the savior takes over, battling against lower corporate returns. Might see 9850 before the magic fades.

Kevin O’Hara
Gansevoort NY

Will close @ 8968.

10,168

I’ll go with 7500

I think that DOW is headed south to about 7200.

i don’t make predictions-but:you could be looking at 7443.

The Dow has put in a solid bottom. When the move up will start or end- I don’t know. The chart shows that it could be soon. But a move to 10500 or 11000 in a rapid manner is possible. And remember, because most think it will get worse or go lower, and so does the news, thats when the smart investors have already gathered their positions -opposite the sentiment. Remember Crude and all the other commodities not long ago?????? Global slowdown? Yeah, right!

Let’s say 7770 by the end of the 1st Q

I have a feeling momentum from this past week and
euphoria around the new administration’s economic
stimulus promises will serve as a further motive
to bring the Dow to about 9000 I would say.

9817 or near there

I think it will be around 9255

8000

I see the dow hitting approx 10850.
Happy New Year!!

10850 is my pediction.

DOW will close at 7000

10302

Very hard to say because I think we will see a new low in the DOW before the end of the first quarter…(in the 5000 range) and then a powerful rally after that….so I will say the DOW will finish trading at 7500 on Mar 31st.

It will close at 7825.

It will close at 9784.

9900.

8787

9505

9550

i would say that NYSE will have a big recovery in hte year of 2009 totally unexpected to the traders.But it will not be an abrupt uptrend.oten it goes up very slowly and pulls back a little to puzzle the traders.

9827

9832 Honeymoon period, desperation and emotion will drive the market up, data will drive it in down Q3/Q4 - 2010 begins recovery

GL All

Dow 9659 close on March 31, 2009

I believe the market will be trading around 9031

will be at 9001

We will have an overdue rebound in the value of US stocks. In the end of I Q. 2009 DOW will oscilate in the 10000 - 10500 area . If I have to be very specific, lets guess - 10250. Nasdaq will get similar upward correction : 2000. In April - May a downward spiral will be resumed again until a bottom is reached somewhere in the mid of 2011.

My best guess is that the market will close @9921

dow 9698 -march31-09
range bound between 7500 - 10000 till 2010 then MAYBE a breakout if we are lucky!

10161

Dow 9659 close on March 31, 2009

th e dow will be 12145 at mar 31 2009

Dow will close at 10300 0n March 31 2009

Dow will close at 9980…

Dow will close at 8350

Dow will close at 10573.24

It will go down after some recovery. I guess it would land at 7900.

My calculation for the DOW close in the first quarter is 9875.

I hope Roger Aylin wins from the entries I have seen so far, but my guess is 9632.

Dow will close at 7700

The dow will close at 10800

I think DOW will close around 9800 at the end of Q1, 2009.

the dow will close at 9750

The dow will close at 10111

The 1st quarter will meander in the 8000 range. I think it will finish around 8872.

In my opinion, Bear market will still hold good and DOW will be at 7200 at the end of the quarter

8500

Sun is not rising yet! There will be still many disappointments ahead!? DOW will be 7580 points! ;=D

DOW will close at 9200 at the end of Q1 2009

DOW 9203

one more leg down to 7500

The dow will close ar 9345 at the end of the 1st quarter

10200

10246

7654

8480

We still need to test those lows in November….7480

above 11000

9560

Dow will be 8342.04 on the end of 1st quarter 2009

9483

DOW at 8200

The dow will reach 11,775at the end of the 1st quarter, before reports and the next tumble.

I am optimistic and predict the DOW will be at 10,175.

The dow will close around 9250. The quarter will me mostly flat with several real volitile days & recovery.

6880

8611

Dow will close at 10552.33

Dow will close at 9766.

If there is any recovery, it will slow, but looking at the financial results of the major as well as small companies, the short at least looks very bleak. As long as companies don’t change there business plans to become more profitable, by borrowing less,and keep their spending now, we in for a long recession.

9355

THERE ARE STILL ALOT OF CORP. CROOKS OUT THERE.OUR DOLLOAR VALUE IS ABOUT TO DROP.OUR GOVERNMENT IS TRYING TO LAUNCH THE NEW NORTH AMERICAN CURRENCY.JOB LOSSES STILL ON THE RISE.MANUFACTURING CUT BACKS AND WE STILL CAN BE SAFE TO SAY GAS WILL BE GOING BACK UP ON A STEADY RISE SOON,AND NOT TO MENTION WE STILL HAVE A BUNCH OF CROOKS IN OUR GOVERNMENT THAT STILL NEED TO BE EXPOSED.UNCONTROLED IMMIGRATION DEMANDING MORE MONEY FOR MEDICAL AND FOOD.I CAN GO ON AND ON,BUT EVEN RAY CHARELS CAN SEE WHERE OUR COUNTRY IS HEADED IF OUR GOVERNMENT DOESNT PULL THEIR HEADS OUT OF THEIR (YOU KNOW WHAT!!)
BACK TO THE ORGINAL QUESTION,I FEEL THE DOW WILL CLOSE AT 7824

Sorry folks but to or below 4,000

On the monthly chart the Dow has posted a new low each month since September. On the daily a new low since the 6th January 09. It will be close to support on the day Obama is sworn in to office. A break of the support at about 7,500 sees the next support at about 4000. That sort of momentum could see that level breached to next supports at 3,000 and then below 2000. There are also a lot of fundamentals to my take but too much for here. In short I would say that from the Dow 8,000 in 03 the market was built on easier finance, that has fallen away and the outlook now is much worse than then

i say by the end of the quarter 2009 the dow will be around 7587 range….or very close to it

Rich

I think we are headed for another leg down after a slight bounce after Inauguration it will come down to 7420

DOW could close in the 6000-7900 zone.

djia will be between 7500-8000

Dow will be nearing 7500 with a mid to late year target of 5500.

honestly, there’s no decent short term chart pattern i can zoom in, in order to “guess” where the dow at the end of the quarter. the weekly and the monthly charts are so darn ugly to see as well. The only defense of the dow is the double bottom (near 7,500 scenario (triple if 2002 low is added in the picture).The question at what level will the parabolic curve burst (which started at the low of 2002 to high of 2007, after the fact)will end must be address first. It is a big factor to determine in order to get a decent “guess” of where the dow will be. I have a theory though but to sum it all, “at what level will the dow close at the end of the quarter”. Honestly, i dont have a clue.

But within the period of 2009 though, basing on “emotional spike theory” and the “20% rule of low”, the parabolic burst ended last nov 2007 low.recovered 20% afterwards, determining the low and confirming the burst target. i would say within 2009, dow will climnb back to 10,200 the least. caveat.

7841

“Where will the DOW close at the end of the 1st quarter of 2009?”

If a rally starts next week then my best guess is
10,035

6813

7299

6950

DJIA at 7200

I predict the Dow Jones Industrial Index will close at 8721 on March 31, 2009.
I predict the DOW will trade between 6,000 and 9,999 during the First Quarter of 2009. That was easy.
We have no special insight into the future.
The “Market” is in the hands of people.
“People” are only somewhat predictible.
Watch them climb a mountain and then jump off a cliff.

I belive the dow will be at 8458 at the end of the Quater.

looks like it is heading south — more towards
6800 by first Quarter .

8953 but i lose the contest and it closes much higher!!!

10500

9269

i want more about presant obma

9288

Given the global challenges and huge deficit spending, it’s going down. Maybe to 6720.

8750 is my guess - 4thq will be 5k

I am hoping for a bullish turn, but if it goes bearish and breaks all support, I predict 6327, so mark me down for 6327. Thanks

it will be around 9969

I think we will stay in a trading range I’ll pick 9100.

March 31st closing guess: 9625

Dow will be at 10400 by end of 1Q2009; even with more negative news from the banking sector, investors will be looking ahead to 3rdQ and will see some ray of hope given that companies are moving quickly to layoffs and expense cutting.

In a 4000-5000 areas. In the third quarter some rallies in a sideways market.

4000-5000 area

1st quarter DOW to hit 9625.

1st quarter DOW to hit 7450

1st quarter DOW close is 7200

Feels like I’m on the price is right. I don’t think the economic stimulus is going to have much of an effect on deflation and the continuing loss of jobs as well as helping the banks that are now on life support with more bad news comming. Dow closes at 7150.

Dow at 8948

Dow will close March out at 8,172 right where it is today. After the incredible damage inflicted during the last year, it will take many months of basing to offer any significant upside.

The Dow will be at 9694.37.

I see some slow recovery by the end of Q1 2009. DOW at 9483!!

I see 9177

I’m going with a March 31, 2009 close of 8688.75

We could see a close at 7400

1st quarter DOW to close @ 9325.

8650

My best guess 8049

7345

My guess-6084