Trader’s Blog Contest For October
“At what price will the DOW close for the last day of 2009”
Pick a price that you think will match the close for December 31st, 2009. You can simply enter a price (i.e. 1100) or you can enter a price and a short analysis of how/why you chose that price. Unlike our other monthly contests, we are giving away a small prize pack to a random participant for the month as well as a grand prize to the person that comes closest to the actual price. We will be contacting the grand prize winner on Monday, January 4th via email. Just leave a comment on this post stating that price at which you believe the DOW will close for 2009 and a brief comment (optional). ONE ENTRY PER PERSON OR YOU WILL BE REMOVED FROM THE CONTEST.
Monthly Prize Winner will receive…
MarketClub Hat
MarketClub Shirt
1 Complimentary Month of MarketClub
Grand Prize Winner will receive…
MarketClub Hat
MarketClub Zip Drive
MarketClub Shirt
3 Complimentary Months of MarketClub
How To Enter:
Comment on this post telling us the price at which you think the DOW will close for 2009. You may add a little bit of commentary or opinion if you would like to… just keep it clean and remember that there is only one entry per person. All multiple entries will be deleted without notification.
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Rules
1. This contest is open until 11:59 PM (Eastern) on October 31st, 2009.
2. No wrong answers. Any participation counts as an entry.
3. One entry per email address.
4. Winner will be picked by random integer software.
5. Monthly Prize Winner will be contacted on Monday, November 2nd, 2009 via email. The Grand Prize Winner will be contacted on Monday, January 4th via email.
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Good luck!
Comments
193 Comments
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The dow will be around 8923, 50% retracement of the last move up.
The Dow will be around 9950.
I predict tat the Dow will be 9875.
9000
I think 10200 will be it.
9010
I think it will be @ 10,245
11000, lets not forgot the year end rally.
11200
My best guess is 11,383 then watch out below. It should be lots of fun for us traders. BTW — I used a combination of Fibs and found a rest area which I think will be the test of the DOW.
Thanks for the opportunity.
9850 Down then up.
8,120 oh my !!!
The DOW will close the year at 8330.22. There is still a lot of bad news to come out this year.
EOY @ 11454 looks good to me.
My bullish end for 2009 in DOW is 7390
I think the Dow will be 9879.
DOW will close for 2009 @ 11861
I think year end Dow will be 10347
DOW 8888 or less
DOW will close for 2009 @ 9273
7854
I think around 8750-9250..
I believe that the Dow will close out the year at 10291.35 to maybe up to the 10,300 level, but if I was to guess 1 no then 10,292.35 would be it.
5165
Dow will be at 10543 by YE
8000 Around 50% Retracement of Sep High.
P.S
Thanks Adam for your Help regarding S&p 500 MACD divergence it worked a treat. Made few pounds on FTSE100 index as I trade from England,also thanks regarding Gold late videos.
6800
Elliott Wave on a weekly chart indicates a close of the DOW at 7723 at the end of the year.
10500-11001
12000
10330
It will be at 10667
9549
11000
11126
8737
Gold, silver and oil rising by then should offset some of the crashing we will hear, so I say 10053.
I’ll say 7500.
I think the it will drop to around 8000 completing the head of a future head and shoulders top. I think that by then some more ugliness will be upon us driven by higher inflation.
6,500 -ish
9999
10300
With Respect to my Analysis the Dow will be on 9965
It will close at 7230
8888
8780 on the nose….heheh.
10800 which is 20% gain for 2009
10,364
Low to Mid 9’s.
9350
I guest somewhere 12000 point
I guest somewhere 12300 point
Closing price for Dow 31 Dec.8543.68
and —- I think gold will rise to $1328
I know that wasn’t the question but its more interesting!
8085
11745
10,986 - unless the unavoidable crash starts before the year-end rally
DOW closing price for December 31, 2009 will be 9733
10636
DOW at Year end will be around 5000
31/12/2009 Dow will be at 7100
the down, let me see…. i thing about 9645 points!!!!….will see…
congratulation for the web!!
My guess DOW @ 7250 on 12/31/09
DOW@ 10999 on 12/31/09
My guess 9950
8336
I think the dow will fall to 9002
Don Dean,Maine
my call on the dow 10500 for the close dec. 31, 09
DOW 8303
Dow will close at 8475, dollar must go up or currency markets fall apart, therefore stocks must come down.
DOW at end of year will be 10,197
7211, for the DOW by years end
The Dow Jones will be at 10,453.74 the last trading day of the year, 2009.
6047 dec 31
Dow will be at 8400 by year end
Dow will close at 10409 for 2009
My guess is The djia will close at 10,285 at year end.
dow @10666 year end
My estimate is DOW & 7764.
20% up from the March low.
My guess the DOW closes around 12,780 by year end
i think the dow will hiot on 12/31 10500
I’m looking for Dow at 7989 by the last day of 2009, the end of a medium term cycle low.
My prediction is that on Thursday, December 31, the Dow will close at 11,237. A crush of short covering by inverse funds will cause this spike, soon to be followed by a pull-back. Gradually, the realities of back-breaking unemployment, falling expectations, repositioning of the epicenter of global growth, and a surge in bets on the short side will cause the Dow to tumble. Considering the meteoric rise from first touching 2,000 in 1987, to crashing 20% in October of the same year, to spiking from 3,200 when Bill Clinton was inaugurated in 1993 to 11,200 when Clinton left office in 2001, we can expect the Dow to migrate to the mathematically predicted normal level of about 6,700. After the following depression sets in, the Dow will stumble along and after a few years, will hit a low of 4,783. Overpopulation, diminishing resources, overcrowding, and gradual increase in misery will be the inheritance of our children.
a health level in a slow recovery,but still a recovery.retail sales and the consumer back to work will have hit bottom and will be beginning to bounce up,with housing having positive numbers gdp increasing by eoy.
2009 close 7895
10019 - Just a wild guess
Looks like 8822.87. Time for the October pullback.
8500
10,532
It will end at 10027.
The DOW will be at 10,015 after falling to re-test support from previous highs.
(Everthing is backwards right now - so stocks will break above 10,000 during October/November, become over-sold and then fall during the year-end period … instead of rally further).
I think the DOW will close at 9785 on December 31, 2009
The Dow will close at 7797 on Dec. 31, 2009. A 61% retracement of this floundering Bear market “super rally” that began in March 2009.
Now if the US Dollar falls over the cliff at 76, the Dow could be in orbit around the Moon by Christmas, but I’ll stick with 7797.
I think the DOW will be around 11400 mark by Dec 31st, 2009
Dow will be at 11111 - because the dollar is weak. Real value in 2007 peak terms will be approximately a 50% retracement of the current rally. Dollar is falling so fast that retracement has to include a “correction factor” - thats not the way it was back in the day when the retracement math was conceived.
my guess would be 10490
11920
According to my calculations :-), it should get up to 10015.20 - good luck to everyone. Cheers
I think Dow will close at 10500, slightly higher than its 50% Fibonacci retracement from its lowest point in February 2009.
will reach to 11500.
I am a bear with this market. Fundelmentals still weak. To many people not working. Consumer goods not being bought. Christmas sales will determine to a large extent what the market will look like.
DOW 8107
The DOW will close at 11,109 on the last day of 2009. Then watch out for 2010 first quarter, as it heads down…
My guess is the Dow will certainly gain through the last Quarter, closing at an easy 11600. Next year might be a little different though!!
I believe the Dow will close at 11,574 on the 31st of December 2009. I hope I’m right so that we can all enjoy a happier 2010!
My guess is that the Dow will close at the end of the year at 11,283 —
but I will add that after the start of the new year it will once again fall, fall to the 8,000 level
I’m looking at 100 points +/- 11,751…(this from one who has been studying charts for only 5-6 months so don’t put to much on it)
9056, about a 10% sell off from the high of just of 10,062 in early oct
The Dow will close 2009 at 10,225
The DOW will in the 10800 range
The Dow will close at 10,120.
As you are asking for a prediction for the “PRICE” of the DOW and not at what value the DOW will be at at the end of the year: The ticker symbol DOW (DOW CHEM CO COM) will have a cost at the end of the year at $28.00 per share.
10682
7888
The market will close at 10,480 for the year
Dpw will closr at 11059
dow yr close @ 8,455
9273
10400 close but no cigar!
6700 how about that?
10901 reasonable before next correction.
11223 ???
11587
Here is a quote from Lao Tzu:
“Those who have knowledge, don’t predict. Those who predict, don’t have knowledge.”
So I admit that I don’t know and I am just guessing like everyone else here, but since I could use a hat and a t-shirt, here it goes:
Dow by Dec. 31, 2009 = $8,597.48 (which is 1 std. deviation down from the current price)
10,333 DOW Close 1/31/09
10333 DOW close for 2009
10,550
10350
9455
Dow at 10,073 by year end.
Up and Down movement
11150 - no comment
The dow will close 10252
I think that @ the yr.-end 2009 the Dow will be trading somewhere below the $10,300 level. And if I had to put a no. on it I would say: 10,292.35.
I like you website and I find it very interesting.By the way Adam,I saw your picture and you and I look very much alike.I may subscribe to your website in the future and I like the way you teach online.I nevere saw that before and you seem to know what you are talking about.I saw your ad on Blumberg on a New York Channel last night and it’s a good ad.Looking forward to future e-mails.
Sincerely,Robert
Dow will be ~9002 at 2009 end.
looks like 11,757
Dow at 11089 at EOY.
I believe the DOW will finish 2009 with 12305.
Here in southwest Arkansas the economy is holding its own as of now..
Potlatch has closed a plant sometime back.. When the weather improves (we had record amounts of rain for the year) things will improve for the loggers and farmers. I see things getting better from now to the next 3 to 4 years…..Arkansas unemploymnent rate is 7.1% not bad compared to many other parts of the US….We are a diversified economy in Arkansas…. Agriculture based…
DOW will close at 10,904.04 !!!!!
Up 20.7% for the year!!!
BOOK IT DANO!
Donny K
Dow will close at 11222 on 31 Dec 09.
Cheers!
My guess is 10850. That number corresponds to where the wheels really started to come off back in the beginning of Oct 08. I’m guessing that number will constitute some resistance that will be hard to get through.
the dow will reach 12666.66 ditto for sp500 1266.66
9,467 Dow
Adam, thanks for your videos.
Dow projection: 9445
I think dow still have some upside potential and my target will be at 9489 by the end of this year.
My guess is 10,553.
The DOW will be 10,310.
10999
Think it will finish up at 9956
Dow stänger 8671, fler bubblor och tråkiga nyheter är att vänta,byxorna är inte färdigtvättade
ever the optimist;I want the DOW at 12500.why not ?we live in interesting times,Don’t we??????????
10400
I would say between high 10,500.
my price end of year 90252
Dow will be 9899 by the end of 2009
My guess for the Dow at the end of 2009 is 10,488.8
8310
My guess for the Dow at the end of 2009 is 9,450
11321
Depends on trends and stimuli. Must fall between 6500 and 14200. I say
8762.
dow will finish at 9020.23
DOW around 10657
I think the Dow will close aroun 7470.
I believe the shoe is about to drop.
Dan
DOW will close around 7777
The DOW will be at 8250 by year end. Asset valuations will come down with strengthening dollar.
9351
looking for ODD number
good luck to all
henry
the strenghting of the dollar is temporary, the dow will close at around 12,212.06.
I think Dow is going to end up at 8548.
Dow will end 2009 at 8305.
year end dow at 10,100
Market close for the year 2009 at 8096.
about 10,000
8197
DOW WILL BE BELOW 7500, DUE TO THE 3RD WAVE DOWN WHICH JUST STARTED
DOW closes year at 8100. Christmas sales dissappoint.
9710
finish the year off at 7866
9201.78
7887
9,859.58
9375 right around the major support level
Sorry all you who entered, the final will be 10,114.82.
8737
I think the Dow will be at 9.100 by the end of 2009.
8127 - oh my !
8666…cheers
11520.39
9010
10149
8701, wave 3 has begin, and major support is this are, with a lot of previous price action in this range, it might take a couple of weeks to punch through these bands. I wrote a blog about this coming wave 3, and tied it together with some fractals that formed in 2008. It is done on the SPX, so I had to super-impose my chart over the DOW to get the number I did. For anyone interested in fractals, you might enjoy this post from my blog, EW Trends and Charts.
http://ewtrendsandcharts.blogspot.com/2009/10/fractals.html
I think the Dow will be at 10450 by December 31, 2009.
Close at 10890.
The Dow will fall out of bed in the next 2 months as the dollar is destroyed by the fraud of our politicians and the Federal Reserve.
I predict it will end up at 8.592