“Saturday Seminars”- Trading the Short-Term Volatility Breakout without a Mechanical System
Mechanical systems do have merit, but after ten years of trading in the cash and energy markets Michael became convinced that a discretionary approach was more suited to his personality and gave him more consistent profits. In this seminar, Michael describes every aspect of the discretionary methodology he developed for profiting from a short-term volatility breakout in futures and equities markets.
Michael’s strategy employs numerous studies, but it assembles them in a logical and efficient manner that is easily grasped. Using his techniques, Michael analyzes twelve futures markets and ten equities in the two hours of this session. His methodology employs classic pattern recognition, average true range, swing, Fibonacci support and resistance, MACD, ADX/DMI, price/volume/open interest relationships, momentum, historic volatility, and the Commitment of Traders report.
Michael also discusses the full anatomy of a trade including entries, exits, setting stops, account leverage, and money management. He presents actual trades in detail so that you gain a complete understanding of his pragmatic, winning methodology. This session provides you with an enhanced understanding of the markets, thereby improving profitability regardless of experience level or trading style.
PDF Workbook
Before Michael Mazur began trading in the futures industry in 1994, he spent ten years as an international cargo trader in the energy market. He traded for Mobil Oil, Mitsubishi, Salomon, and Vitol SA, and he managed trading personnel and a trading portfolio that reached from the Arabian Gulf through India to the Pacific Rim. His group sales ranged from $500 million to $1 billion annually. Michael lives in Pacific Grove, California, where he operates M.J. Mazur, Inc., a registered commodity trading advisor. Michael manages futures accounts, publishes M Trade, a daily trading sheet, and provides consulting services to institutions and independent investors.
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Traders Toolbox: Fibonacci - It’s all about the numbers
Fibonacci Number Series: The work in mathematics by a thirteenth century Italian has had a profound impact on modern man and has yielded a useful technical analysis tool. Born Leonardo of Piza, he is better known in the trading community as Fibonacci. Fibonacci’s best known work is Liber Abaci which is generally credited as having introduced the Arabic number system which we use today.
Fibonacci introduced a number sequence in Liber Abaci which is said to be a reflection of human nature. The series is as follows:1,1,2,3,5,8,13,21,34,55,89,144 and on to infinity. The series is arrived at by adding each number to the previous. For example, 1 plus 1 equals 2; 2 plus 1 equals 3; 3 plus 2 equals 5; 5 plus 3 equals 8; 8 plus 5 equals 13; and so on.
I use the Fibonacci series in a number of ways, in terms of both time and price movement. I will briefly discuss some basic time movements.
Watch a free video on Fibonacci.
The 13-week pattern in hogs is the simplest application of finding market turns based on a Fibonacci number. Markets will often turn on a time span which is a Fibonacci count from a previous important event. For example, look at the monthly cattle chart to see several turns on or about 21 months from a previous high or low.
Time counts can be done on virtually any type of chart. The turns can be counted in terms of days, weeks, months or even years. I have found weekly counts to be the most practical and very effective.
Another powerful method is to look for areas where Fibonacci time counts from various previous lows and highs converge.
In analyzing price action, the simplest way to use Fibonacci numbers (1,1,2,3,5,8,13,21,34,55,89,144…) is on support and resistance levels or pivot levels. For example: 5.00 and 8.00 soy- beans, 5.50 (55) soybeans, 3.00 corn, 500 gold, 5.00 silver, 1.44 oats, 34.00 hogs, 55.00 cattle, and so on.
Lengths of moves in terms of price commonly are a Fibonacci number. The down move on the weekly crude oil chart was $22, which was followed by a $13 rally. Livestock commonly move in increments of $5, $8 or $13. Grains like to move in 8<;, 13<t! and 21d; swings. Treasury bonds and Treasury bills often move in Fibonac- ci increments in terms of both time and price.
The most common application of Fibonacci numbers is the use of ratios within the number series. Many people do not realize that the common retracement levels are derivatives of Fibonacci relationships. Fifty percent is 1 - 2, 66% is 2 - 3 and thereafter, any number in the series divided by the next results in 62 %. Also, starting with 3, any number divided by the second number following it will result in 38% (3 - 8, 5 - 13, etc.).
