How to Determine Where the Real Support and Resistance are Everyday
If you follow our blog, then you are definitely familiar with trader Larry Levin, President of Trading Advantage LLC. We have gotten such a great response from some of his past posts that he has agreed to share one more of his favorite trading tips as a special treat to our viewers. Determining the direction of the market can be tricky and just plain confusing at times, but Larry’s expert opinion keeps it simple and straight-to-the-point. If you like this article, Larry’s also agreed to give you free access to one of his top trading secrets.
Today he’s going to tell you where the real support and resistance levels are everyday. Read more
Trader’s Toolbox: Support and Resistance Revisited
Although many of you will find this lesson in one of the most basic concepts of market behavior “old hat”, it never hurts to review. One of the first things a new trader is told (I hesitate to say learns as many never do) is to buy a breakout above resistance and sell a fall through support.
Resistance is the level which holds a market down, while support is an area which props up a market much like a ceiling and a floor. The key is to identify the critical levels. There are a number of methods to determine support and resistance: trendlines, moving averages, retracements, Gann angles, etc. However, simple observation can be an effective means of locating the important areas. A quick glance at the October cotton chart reveals the most basic levels of support and resistance (broken lines).
A previous high often provides resistance, while an earlier low tends to offer support. Support or resistance levels are not necessarily flat. For example, trendlines reveal areas of rising support or falling resistance. Also, when broken, uptrend lines offer a new level of rising resistance, while the opposite is true for downtrend lines. In fact, virtually any broken area of support will become resistance and vice versa. After breaking a level of support (or resistance), the market commonly comes back to test that level before resuming the downmove (upmove). This may be the single most effective method of locating low-risk entry points for trading purposes. This lesson may seem like wasted space to the experienced. However, it is amazing how often traders simply forget (or ignore) the power of basic support and resistance levels. This concept can be very profitable, but it may be just too “easy”.
I’M BACK!!!
Filed under: General, MarketClub Techniques, Tips & Talk, Trading Videos
Hello, Adam Hewison here for MarketClub. A lot has happened since I’ve been gone, but it’s time to focus on what’s happening right now! Here is a preview of what’s ahead for your 1PM market update for Monday the 16th of May.
SP500 +65 and moving sideways. Up trend still intact. Market at the lower end of the Donchian Channel. Target remains at 1,4000.
Silver possible bullish divergence on the Williams %R indicator.Major resistance at $39.50.
Gold longer term trend still positive. Support at $1,462.50. Resistance at $1,526.
Crude Oil neutral with a + 65 reading. Long term indicator remains positive. Possible bullish divergence on the Williams %R indicator.
The Dollar Index is trapped in a trading range with the longer term outlook remaining negative. Major resistance at 77.50.
The Thomson Reuters/Jefferies CRB Commodity Index, is negative with a 60% reading. Near-term resistance at 348.50. Support at 333.50.
Join me at 1PM ET for your LIVE market update!
All the best,
Adam Hewison
President of INO.com
Co-founder of MarketClub
How to Determine When the Market is Really Trending
S&P Trader Larry Levin, President of Trading Advantage LLC, has agreed to share one of his favorite trading secrets as a special treat to our viewers. Determining a trend can often be tricky. Get Larry’s expert opinion on how to keep it simple. If you like this article, you won’t want to miss his secret one-time framing technique!
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How to Determine When the Market is Really Trending
How often have you looked at a chart and tried to determine whether or not the market is really trending? How many times have you been fooled by your Stochastics or RSI indicators? How many times have you sold because your oscillators were screaming overbought then watched the market dip a little and then continue higher, stopping you out for another loss? One of the most important things you are probably trying to figure out with any given market is if it is in a trend, and in which direction that trend is moving.
Find the trend and make friends with it
Swimming upstream is difficult, and that kind of battle is probably why you’ll often hear traders say, “The trend is your friend.” But spotting a real trend can be tricky, especially for first time traders and chart observers. You don’t need really fancy calculations or trading software to spot a trend in a market, and if you find it, don’t fight it.
Guess who bought the dip? That’s right, the floor traders and the other professionals
If a market is really trending, there will always be reactions against the prevailing trend. Those are the signals most floor traders love. They know that many investors in the general public will fall for the “fade” nearly every time. So how do you know whether or not what you are seeing is a real trending market or not?
The basics are very simple. A market in an uptrend will likely have higher highs and higher lows. The opposite is true for a downtrend. Lower highs and lower lows tell you when the market is in a downtrend.
You never want to go against these situations.
IMPORTANT TRADING RULES:
1) We never get long or buy in a downtrending market.
2) We never sell or go short in an uptrending market.
It’s just like stepping in front of a freight train.
A market on a move higher will attract new buyers and selling forces will help establish higher highs. When the price dips, more buyers will come in on what they perceive as a value entry point, delivering those higher lows. On the downside, selling pressure will cause lower lows and any move above those results in more sales, topping off those lower highs.
Find support and resistance and find trading opportunities
Once you have determined the overall trend, you can look for support and resistance points. Knowing these price levels can help you follow the trend, buying on dips in a market that might be trending higher or selling on pops when the prevailing trend is likely lower. It doesn’t get any better than that!
Did you like this trading tip? Click HERE for a technique Larry used to make over 1.9 million dollars in the market:
Best Trades to you,
Larry Levin
Founder & President- Trading Advantage
Disclaimer: Trading in futures and options involves a substantial degree of a risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
How to Determine Where the Real Support and Resistance is Everyday
Larry Levin is no novice to the markets, in fact he’s a pretty well-known by traders worldwide. We’ve asked Larry to give Trader’s Blog readers some tips he uses to find daily support and resistance levels and he gladly agreed. Be sure to comment and let us know what you think and some things you use to find key market levels.
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Secret Trading Tip #29
From the Desk of S&P Trader Larry Levin, President of Trading Advantage LLC
How to Determine Where the Real Support and Resistance is Everyday
Understanding support and resistance levels is an extremely important skill in any market, and it’s absolutely critical if you plan on trading the S&P and NASDAQ E-Mini markets. Professional floor traders are aware of an entire range of major and minor support and resistance levels before the market opens each day. They also know how to calculate new levels as the trading day progresses. Read more
Fibonacci Range Expansion Trading Zone
Our guest today is Tom Strignano, a former Chief Bank Dealer with 25 years experience. He has also been featured on The Forex Signals. Follow Tom as he shows you a technique he developed back in the 1990′s incorporating Adam’s favorite Italian mathematician, Leonardo Fibonacci. 
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The Fibonacci Range Expansion Trading technique is one that I developed back in the early 1990s when I was moving away from lagging indicators like RSI, MACD, moving averages etc. I had no success using those indicators and came to the conclusion that either I didn’t understand them, or that they simply didn’t work. The only thing that I had any success with was trendline breaks, Fibonacci points, and standard pivots with the reading of pure price action. I was taught that in order to be successful in this business of trading, you need a few components.
According to my mentor and senior treasurer, Aldo Pizzoferrato, trading required BMG, or Brains, Money, and Guts. You need the brains to anticipate market momentum and to be a step ahead of the herd. You need capital to advance, and finally, you need the guts to believe in yourself and your systems. Therein lies the problem for most traders. Most traders operate on the simplest level. They have no real trading plan and view charts and price action using gut feel or really just guesswork. Aldo stressed upon me that the most effective approach was acting like a quarterback of a football team. I need to send the signals, by reading the market and finding weakness in the markets’ defenses. He would always say, “Don’t just receive the signals, send the market some feedback.” I had learned that trading is not a spectator sport. In other words, the most effective approach is in the development of systems that generate buy and sell signals. I had to move from “chart artist” to a true technician. Read more
Finding an Edge with Support and Resistance
Today I would like to introduce Karen of Wealth Wizard World. Karen is an experienced trader who took an interest in the markets at a very young age has continued since then. Through her own blog and website, Karen shares what she has learned in her twenty-plus years and today she has agreed to share this knowledge with Trader’s Blog readers as well.
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I’ve traded for many years – about 20 to be precise. During the early years, I read everything I could get my hands on and tried several methods. The lessons learned were not what to do, but what not to do, and yet I was looking for something more.
There are lots of indicators to use and chart patterns to watch. What bothered me was that I realized that indicators lag. They respond to the movement of price.
Chart patterns work very well for some people, but they didn’t do much for me. I saw several head and shoulders patterns break to new highs; flags, pennants, and wedges break opposite of what they were supposed to do. What was an eager, studious, young trader supposed to do?
Using Gann Swing Charts In Futures Trading…
Looking at a chart is like looking at a complex painting. Everyone has their own interpretation. Likewise, being able to see trade setups takes a trained eye and everyone has their own approach. Today, Duncan from Swing Trends is going to show us how he uses Gann Swing Charts to analyze futures.
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One of the largest problems in trading any kind of financial instrument is how to analyze price action. Present 10 different traders with a given candle chart and ask them to classify market trend, support and resistance and chart patterns and the chances are you will receive 10 different looking sets of analysis in return. Not only is it likely that traders will differ substantially in the important areas identified, present the same trader with the same chart, at a different time, it is highly likely that the two charts you will now have will be different to each other. Read more
Exact Swing Points -Support And Resistance
Today I’d like to welcome back Mark McRae from SureFireTradingChallenge.com. I personally have known Mark for over three years, with Adam knowing Mark well over 5, and Adam and I both agree that Mark is truly an innovator and one of the hardest working traders we know. His latest project, SureFireTradingChallenge.com, kept him holed up with charts and traders from all around the world to find some of the best methods in the world for trading. Check it out here.
Now his blog post today is more applicable now then it ever has been…support and resistance! Let me let Mark teach you a bit more:
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Where exactly are the support and resistance points?
Where exactly are the swing points on a chart?
This is a particularly important lesson!
Just about every system or method of trading at least takes note of where the key support and resistance levels are.
I have found a double use for my method of identifying these points – They are also Swing Points!
You may think you know where Support and Resistance is, but do you really?
How do you know where support and resistance really is?
The problem with Support and Resistance (S&R) is that it is not a definite number. It is not an exact point on the chart at which price will, without any hesitation stop.
In fact S&R is actually an area – it is not an exact number as we would all like to think.
The dilemma of course, is that in order to do our calculations we need an exact point. You can’t enter $50.10/20 area when using fibonacci or working out your stops and limits. You need an exact number even though S&R is not an exact number.
Try telling your broker that you want a stop loss at somewhere between 50 and 55 and watch him burst a blood vessel.
This is what I want to concentrate on in this lesson. This is a technique I have found to be particularly good at not only identifying strong S&R points but also swing points.
In order to find S&R we must first identify market swing points. There are various ways of doing this but I am going to use the one I have used for years.
For the purpose of swing points we are not interested in the open or close of the bars only the high and low.
Take any bar and think of that bar as the start bar (S). If there are two consecutive higher highs than the bar you marked (S) then that is a swing up e.g. bar (1) has a higher high than bar (S) and bar (2) has a higher high than bar (1). If there are not two higher highs than bar (S) then you move to the next bar and see if there are two consecutive higher highs.
This can be particularly useful if the market is trading sideways and you are trying to determine the breakout point. There may be many peaks and valleys but for me there is only one real point – that is the most recent swing up or swing down.
Look at the next diagram
You can see that although there were a few highs and lows that you could have taken as support or resistance, but it wasn’t until bar (M) that a definite swing point had been identified and you could mark bar (K) with an (S).
Swing Down
To work out the swing down point – take any bar on a chart and think of that bar as your start point – bar (S). If the next two consecutive bars make lower lows than the previous bar then that is a swing down e.g. bar (1) has a lower low than bar (S) and bar (2) has a lower low then bar (1). If there are not two consecutive lower lows then it is not a swing point and you move to the next bar.
Just as in the example above you can see exactly the same thing with the swing down. Even though price made a few highs and lows it wasn’t until bar (M) that you could mark bar (K) as the (S) point.
Support And Resistance
Only once we have clearly marker swing points can we go on to identify our support and resistance points.
As you can see from the chart I have marked all the swing up points and swing down points. When we are in a down trend then the swing down points act as resistance and when we are in an up trend the swing up points
act as support.
Marking the support and resistance points using this method of first identifying the swing points will give you definite points on a chart from which to calculate your stops, limits and projections.
Good Trading
Best Regards
Mark McRae
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Please take some time to visit Mark and see his new project: SureFireTradingChallenge.com.
A look at divergence in panel indicators
Today I’d like to welcome back Gary from Biiwii.com. I’ve asked Gary to teach us a bit on divergence.
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I want to have a look at divergence by the lower panel indicators and the valuable clues they can provide when used in conjunction with price activity, support/resistance levels and of course fundamentals of a given stock, commodity or other asset.
Divergence can be used to help define bullish or bearish setups. With my M.O. as a ‘bottom feeder’, today I will focus on a chart that sports most of the components I like to see when setting up for a swing trade; it is the etf UNG (the United States Natural Gas Fund) which has been declining relentlessly from a manic high in June and mercilessly punishing anyone innocent enough to buy into this mini-bubble under the incorrect assumption that it was ‘commodities to da moon’. But as “what goes up comes down” so too does the reverse eventually assert itself.
In looking at NatGas, I like the fundamentals much better from a seasonality and value perspective (thanks to a 40% decline) if only for a swing trade into the fall or winter. Fundamentals are the first priority. Check. Next, the decline has brought the price down to a notable area of lateral support. A decline like this is simply not going to be arrested until support can be defined. Check, we are at noticeable support.
Finally, what I like to see in a bottom feed is relentless and and dispiriting price action down to said support with bullish divergence by the indicators. We have that in spades with RSI, MACD, CCI and Rate of Change all nicely divergent even as bubble participants give up the ship (fresh lows in price). Right at support. I have included the full Stochcastics which have also diverged but more importantly are on the verge of ‘triggering’ above 20. That would be another important cross reference to a bullish case.
So there you have it. A simple bottom feed amid terrible price action down to support and bullish divergence. Nothing but NOTHING in this market is 100% and it is all about risk vs. reward. This trade in my opinion has a good risk profile. The risk is certainly better for Natty than back in July, wouldn’t you say? I have my own money in this trade and speaking of risk, if the noted support fails so too will the trade and I will book a loss. It won’t be the first time. But the key is to always understand your risk profiles and control same.
Edit (10:00) At the time this post was written (pre-market 8/27/08) I was expecting UNG and NatGas to continue hammering out a painful bottom (those are the best kind for sustainability). But during normal market hours we appear to be getting quite excited and gappy. If UNG registers a manic over bought condition directly off of the low I am going to sell it. Please use the above as a chart study on indicator divergence only.
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