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Just Take A Deep Breath And Relax

Adam Hewison - MarketClub

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Hello MarketClub members everywhere. If you live in the United States or you've been following this year's presidential election maybe it's time just to take a deep breath, let it out and relax. Just when you thought things could not get any crazier, they get crazier. 

When FBI Director James Comey came out on a Sunday with no less than two days before the election to say that his original decision not to prosecute Hillary Clinton still stands the market went wild moving up almost 1 1/2% overnight. The question is, is this a significant turnaround for the market or just a dead cat bounce? 

On the other side of the coin, gold has taken a hit this morning down about 1.4%, close to its original breakout point of $1284.03. It also brings gold back to its RSI support line at 50. While the very short term daily Trade Triangle is negative indicating near-term weakness, the weekly Trade Triangle remains green and will only turn red if the $1250 level is broken. I continue to remain longer-term positive on gold.

86.4% Chance Of Winning

Would you invest in a stock that has an 86.4% chance of making money for you? Well, with odds like that it would be a pretty good bet you could make some money. Well, that same percentage 86.4% has been right in predicting the presidential winner since 1928 through 22 presidential cycles. I saw this article originally on Zerohedge.com a website that covers economics, markets and political analysis. The theory is if the market goes down during the last three months before the election the incumbent party almost always loses. When you look back on the market this year, that's exactly what has happened indicating that the incumbent party should lose. Since 1928, there have been 22 presidential elections in 7 out of 8 elections where the S&P fell over that three month period the incumbent party lost. Let's take a look at the major trends: DOW (INDEX:DJI): Daily TT red. Weekly TT red. Monthly TT red. Outlook lower prices ahead. S&P 500 (CME:SP500): Daily TT red. Weekly TT red. Monthly TT red. Outlook lower prices ahead. NASDAQ (NASDAQ:COMP): Daily TT red. Weekly TT red. Monthly TT red. Outlook lower prices ahead. Crude Oil (NYMEX:CL.Z16.E): Daily TT red. Weekly TT red. Monthly TT green. Outlook mixed in the near term. Gold (NYMEX:GC.Z16.E): Daily TT red. Weekly TT green. Monthly TT red. Outlook mixed in the near term.

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